An Analysis of the Likelihood of a Second Oil Embargo and America’s Preparedness for It

The worlds economy is dependent on the availability of crude oil, which supplies the fuels needed for the transportation of labor, raw material, and most importantly final goods. Not only does oil fuel our economy, but it also yields over six thousand useful products, including fertilizers, plastic, and rubber. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) supplies 42.4% of the international demand for crude oil, while also accounting for 43.52% of the worlds proven oil reserves or 724.71 billion barrels (The World Fact Book, 2018). In 1973 the OAPEC realized the true economic and political power that it possessed, leading to the coining of the term oil weapon. The OAPEC declared an oil embargo on all countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. It did so by implementing monthly oil production cuts with the condition that Israeli forces exit occupied Arab lands taken in the six-day war (Graf, 2012). These measures lead to oil prices skyrocketing in the USA from $3 to $12 per barrel (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, 2006), which translates to $17 and $61 respecti

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vely in todays market. This is due to the fact that it was cheaper to import oil into the USA than it was extract it locally; therefore, the USA was highly dependent on imports from the Gulf to satisfy its demands. According to Roy Licklieders 1988 book, Political Power and the Arab Oil Weapon, the oil embargo led to high inflation rates in Western Europe and the U.S, but the shortage of oil was not enough to change the policies of these countries when it came to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Hence, the 1973 oil embargo ended after March 1974 and was deemed a failure. With the US being more and more involved in the Arab world and having the final say in most of its recent major decisions, can oil, also known as black gold due its high profitability, be used as an efficient political and economic weapon against the US? Practically, a second oil embargo would have little to no effect on the USA, due to the political friction between the OAPEC nations created by previous and current US governments and their economic policies that focus on varying oil sourcing and finding innovative energy sources.

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